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Market Survey,
Feedstock Trends Intelligence and Forecasts
Biodiesel 2020,
2nd Edition (685 pages) tracks the
U.S. and global markets for biodiesel growth, details major feedstock
trends, and provides 5 to 10
year forecasts for biodiesel demand, consumption and production.
Europe, China, India and Brazil are also covered as case studies.
Proprietary forecasts developed for this study are also used to
produce 2020 "scenarios" for the U.S., Europe, China, India and
Brazil.
The 2nd edition of the Biodiesel 2020 study finds the
biodiesel industry is entering a new era of transition to
alternative feedstocks, emerging technologies, and revised
government policies favoring sustainable feedstocks and fuels.
Each of these transitions offers considerable challenges and growth
opportunities for biodiesel developers, producers, feedstock
producers, and entrepreneurs.
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Biodiesel Emerges as a Global Industry
"The global markets for biodiesel are entering a period of
rapid, transitional growth, creating both uncertainty and
opportunity. The first generation biodiesel markets in Europe and
the US have reached impressive biodiesel production capacity levels,
but remain constrained by feedstock availability. In the BRIC
nations of Brazil, India and China, key government initiatives are
spawning hundreds of new opportunities for feedstock development,
biodiesel production, and export" said Biodiesel 2020 author Will
Thurmond.
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"A fundamental transition in
global fuel production is now happening. In the year 2007, there
were only 20 oil producing nations supplying the needs of over 200
nations. By the year 2010, more than 200 nations will become
biodiesel producing nations and suppliers," said Thurmond. "The
world is entering a new era of participation by emerging market
nations in global green energy production for transport fuels."
Growth in
Non-Food Feedstocks
Biodiesel feedstock markets world-wide are in transition
from increasingly expensive first generation feedstocks soy,
rapeseed and palm oil to alternative, lower cost, non-food
feedstocks. As a result, a surge in demand for alternative
feedstocks is driving new growth opportunities in the sector.
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"Biodiesel growth from non-food feedstocks is gaining traction
around the world," said Thurmond. "For example, China recently set
aside an area the size of England to produce jatropha and other
non-food plants for biodiesel. India has up to 60 million hectares
of non-arable land available to produce jatropha, and intends to
replace 20% of diesel fuels with jatropha-based biodiesel. In Brazil
and Africa, there are significant programs underway dedicated to
producing non-food crops jatropha and castor for biodiesel."
"In the US and the EU, algae-based biodiesel ventures are growing in
response to demands for clean fuels. Each of these endeavors clearly
demonstrates increased public and private sector interest in
non-food, second generation markets," said Thurmond.
Sustainability Concerns Drive Industry Growth
An
increasing number of second generation biodiesel projects are now
emerging in anticipation of growing sustainability concerns by
governments, and in response to market demands for improved process
efficiencies and greater feedstock production yields.
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"Many governments are now revising their biofuels
policies in a reactive or a proactive manner," Thurmond notes. "If
governments continue to pro-actively support and promote research &
development in second generation technologies including renewable
diesel, BTL biomass to liquids projects, algae, and cellulosic
diesel; and if governments continue to actively support the
development of sustainable, alternative, lower-cost feedstocks such
as algae, jatropha, castor, used vegetable oil, tallow, and other
sustainable feedstocks, the prospects for achieving biodiesel
targets may be realized faster than anticipated. The Biodiesel
2020 study finds that each of these variables will be essential
to achieving biofuels for transport targets" said Thurmond.
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Second Generation Opportunities
As the Europe
and US markets transition to larger plants, alternative feedstocks
and 2nd generation technologies, the Biodiesel 2020 study
predicts a consolidation among smaller, first generation producers
from 2008-2010, accompanied by a series of mergers and acquisitions
in the field.
"From 2008 through 2020, a series of transitions in the biodiesel
industry will create winners and losers," said Thurmond. "Biodiesel
producers that are best able to evolve and adapt to transitions in
technology, markets, feedstocks and government policies are most
likely to succeed over the long term."
Opportunities and Outlook
The initial results from the study
Biodiesel 2020: A
Global Market
Survey find that new developers, farmers, feedstock providers,
producers, and investors who can meet growing demands for supply are
expected to benefit from this emerging market.
In addition, this study
finds key advantages in the future will be available to producers and
investors to supply future needs with new and improved technologies;
alternative feed stocks with higher yields such as jatropha and algae
biodiesel; production scalability and flexibility
options; supply chain, distribution and co-location strategies;
innovative risk management strategies; and industry-friendly
government targets and tax incentives committed to promoting the
awareness and growth of the industry.
With an eye on the future, Biodiesel 2020: A Global Market Survey
provides forecasts and scenarios to the year 2020 for the U.S. and
European markets as well as the
"big emerging markets" of China, Brazil and India. For Brazil, China
and India, the study includes long-term forecasts and year 2020
scenarios, each measuring growth in the diesel and biodiesel
markets, as well as focusing on the potential for biodiesel
growth.
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